Thursday, June 19, 2008

Yet another losses

This few days saw a reverse after an intial of further profit of around 212 USD. The losses will mostly due to early hours of buying in that result in such tremendous losses; this was follwed by many other times of buying in too at the early morning that result in great losses.

Today, after coming back from camp, I was really disappointed as the limit i set for EUR/USD at 1.56 was not filled and the highest was at 1.5585(roughly). Although it looks like just a slight difference, in fact, the changes are huge.

I continue to hold on to my position on EUR/USD which had fallen to a low of 1.5467+ although my target was reduce to 1.5580, a down from the initial high sell limit of 1.56.

In addition, i long the USD/JPY. I realise a very special situation. Since both of my positions involve USD, either pirce goes up/down, the other will normally reverse in direction.

My conclusion is therefore to forbid from buying any currency that will clash with the same currency . Solution found to reduce such risk exposure is to unload either one of the position which reaches a certain level as determined so that out stand can be neutral or positive.

8.15am (US)- I can see that the relationship dilute and both seems to rise at the same time. Perhaps, while some similarity involves between these 2 couple currency, we can hold them awhile to verify the situation.

8.31am- The situation is getting more obvious that when one goes up, the other goes down. I guess I reallhy have to unload to maintain the neutral/positive stand of my situation.

8.40am- While both have rise up, it seems that their relationship does have effect but is minimum at the moment.

9.01am- Although the EUR/USD had risen quite steadily above the 1.55007, the USD/JPY still looks pretty steady.

9.22am- There are news that European names will be selling one of my currency which is EUR/USD. This is a bad sign and i can see that the dollar has fallen from a constant trying high of 1.51+ to now 1.550+ and going below 1.549 level. It seems that there will be a mega sell off slowly and i will be really in deep shit. However, i still decide to long in for now. This was reflective a growing back of USD/JPY to around 107.85+ level which had to threaten to go below 107.20+ level. It seems that everything is going to be slightly balanced but overall again the losses is set to increase once more.

9.28am- Right now the EUR/USD had fallen to below my ideal above 1.50+ level and it is set to go lower perhaps all the way to 1.5480+ and with that a great loss will be expected and a sudden fall is expected in near future. However, i will still long it. Also, this is reflective of a rise in USD/JPY to a once high of 107.85+ level after the lowering to 107.20 plus level.

9.31am- As expected the EUR/USD had fallen to 1.5486 level a sharp fall and is set to fall to below 1.5470 level. In the mean time the USD/JPY rises up to a high of 108.00 but struggling between the range to go below and up again. This is a powerful indicator of the relationship.

9.48am- Right now things looks more bleak although EUR/USD recovers back to around 1.5486+ level while the USD/JPY falls back to 107.87+, a sign of weakening and both currency has been holding for this relatively high position for long and a sudden fall will really wipe me out. Crisis: Unknown how long i can still endure this down period.

Well that is all for now ba......
I really need to re-coup the losses. How .... it is so disheartening...

No comments: